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Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

FEAR - the least useful emotion

Want to sell a product or service?  Crank up the FEAR!

In financial planing, two phrases come to mind involving fear:
"We have nothing to fear except fear itself"
and
"Fear and Greed are the two forces which drive the market"
The former, of course is the famous quote by Franklin Delano Roosevelt during the depth of the great depression. Fear and panic had gripped the public, and this fear was preventing people from making sound economic decisions.

The latter quote illustrates how people can destroy their own investment portfolios, by responding to emotions rather than intellect, buying stocks when they are high (greed) and dumping them when they are low (fear).

Fear is a natural instinct, and we all have it. We'd all like to think that we'd be the ones to respond well under pressure - that if faced with a life-and-death situation, we'd be the ones who took the imitative and took action to save the day. But in reality, in many life-and-death situations, many of us freeze, or even soil ourselves. More than 3/4 of the soldiers in battle in World War II never fired their weapons. Many were paralyzed by fear. The idea of being John Wayne, taking out the machine gun nest with two blazing pistols and hand grenade pins in our teeth is, for most of us, an utter fantasy.

I've been in only one stressful situation like that in my life, and it was enough to make me realize that I am not John Wayne by any stretch of the imagination. I know my limitations in that regard.

But when it comes to personal economics and financial planning, the fear involved is not that experienced by soldiers in battle or by a victim during a robbery. Financial events happen slowly enough that there are no sudden actions or crises most of the time.

Yet fear paralyzes many of us into inaction, or into taking unnecessarily timid actions. We fail to act, and when we do act, we act in the wrong ways, or too little or too late.

As I noted in a previous entry, during the recent downturn, some friends of mine on Retirement Island saw their investments heading South. They panicked and sold off those investments just as they hit rock bottom.  Fear motivated them to do the worst possible thing - buy high and sell low.

Fear whispered in their ear "Sell it now, while you can still get something for it! It may go down further!" Months later, the market recovered, and they found that by selling at the nadir, they "locked in" their losses, while their less fearful friends enjoyed at least a partial recovery.

Debilitating Fear takes on a number of forms:
  • Fear of Crime
  • Fear of retiring poor
  • Fear of losing a job
  • Fear of losing "things"
  • Fear of Repair Costs
  • Fear of depreciation or losing more money
Fear is rarely a useful emotion. This is not to say it does not serve a purpose. You should be afraid of high power lines, loaded handguns, toxic poisons, dangerous people.  But you should ACT on those fears, not be paralyzed by them.

Fear destroys. A tightrope walker learns to control and manager their fears. If they are afraid while walking a tightrope, well, then they will fall off.

Fear is your mind's way of saying "pay attention" and also your mind's way of saying "time to change something."   Like depression, it should be a wake-up call that you need to change the way your are living your life.  But all too often, people spend an entire lifetime living in fear - or living in depression.

Fear can be useful, if managed and tackled.  If you ignore fear, then it just festers and builds, until it is unmanageable and controls your life.

If you are having fears, sit down and ask yourself why. What is it in your life that is making you fearful? Are you afraid of losing your job? Why? It is because your job performance is below par, or the boss doesn't like you? Or maybe the company is not on solid footing and will lay off everyone soon? What you may be perceiving as "fear" may be your subconscious trying to tell you to wake up and take notice of what is going on around you.  Maybe it is time to send out a resume or two and look for a new job.

The same is true with money. If you are afraid of running out of money, perhaps it is because your subconscious is telling you that your finances are not in order.  It is pretty amazing how the brain reacts to money.

For example, when I sold my house a few years back, for a brief period of time, I had no debt, and literally hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank.  It was a very relaxing time, to say the least.  No stress, no fear.  But of course, like most Americans, I quickly went out and bought another house and got back into debt, and my stress level went back up again.  Not much, but I was definitely not as relaxed as before.

Many people in the USA live in a financial nightmare of never-ending debt and payments - all so that they can have shiny objects in their garage and a bigger flat-screen television.  And then they live in fear - fear of losing what little they have been able to accumulate.

I think the secret is to listen to fear and then take action.  If a nagging fear tells you something is too good to be true, listen to that fear, and investigate.  But don't let it dominate your life or force you to make decisions you will regret later.

But fear sells, and marketers and financial institutions use fear to sell you products you don't need, or at over-inflated prices. Let's examine some instances where fear is used to compel people to buy - or over-pay.


1. Identity-Theft Protection

The Fear: Someone will "steal your identity" drain your bank account, run up tens of thousands of dollars of debt you will have to pay off, and ruin your credit rating.

The Product: "Credit Protector Service" usually sold at $8 to $35 per month, basically a computer program that sends you e-mails when anything changes on your credit report.

The Reality: Hyped-up media stories about "Identity Theft" were being planted by the credit card industry to sell their "services" for protection.   Many of the "real life" stories had gaping holes in them, of course.  The "identity thieves" were often family members or friends of the "victim" or the victim themselves.  And while the stories implied the victim would have to pay off the debts incurred, it is basic and well-settled law that you are not responsible for other people's debts (and for banks and other credit agencies who loan money to people without checking their ID first).   Existing credit card protections insulate you from fraudulent charges.  And no one can "drain your bank account" unless you do something stupid like hand out your PIN number to a phishing scam e-mail.  In short, the risk of random identity theft is not as widespread as they make it appear.  Scary statistics on the subject are skewed, as any credit card fraud is now logged as "identity theft" by the industry - to crank up the fear levels.

The Alternative: Check your credit card balances and bank balances every week, if not every other day. Limit the number of credit cards and debt you have. Keep all your receipts and keep track of your spending.  If you wait until the end of the month to review your bill, you are not really managing your money anyway.  You can put a "lock" on your credit to prevent anyone from opening an account without written authorization from you. "Credit Protector" is an unnecessary waste of money, one that is sold strictly on a fear basis.

UPDATE November 2014:  Some credit card companies (e.g, Barclay Bank) offer "Credit Score Monitoring" for free, if you have the credit card.   This is not enough to go out and get such a credit card, but it illustrates why paying money for "credit score monitoring" is stupid.   It costs them nothing to have a computer programmed to monitor your credit score and notify you via e-mail of any changes.   But that being said, you really don't even need "free" credit score monitoring, either.


2. The New Car

The Fear: Your old car will break down somewhere, leaving you stranded on a rainy night and vulnerable to "the slasher" or some other psychotic criminal.   Alternately, it will break down, leaving you with repair bills in the thousands of dollars that you cannot pay. Or, your children (particularly daughters) will break down and be raped in the night.  Better to buy a brand new car and avoid the risk! (Sound silly? Adults have explained this to me in those exact terms, I kid you not!).   Another fear I have heard from otherwise rational people is that they should "unload" a perfectly functional and sound vehicle, on the ground that it may "depreciate" more.

The Product: New cars, either bought or leased, financed at high interest rates, depreciate 20% in the first year of use, 50% by the fifth year, with high-cost collision insurance required.   The cost of buying an owning a new car every 3 years or so is more than double that of owning a good quality late model secondhand car and keeping it for 8-10 years.  In other words, you could own two cars for the price of one.

The Reality: A well maintained car rarely breaks down, even over a decade or more (I have not been stranded by the side of the road in over 20 years, and most of my cars are well over ten years old). Even if "stranded", everyone has a cell phone today, and a local tow truck can be called quickly and covered by AAA. Major components of any modern car will last easily 100,000 miles or more - sometimes 200,000 miles. The idea that a repair will bankrupt you is ludicrous. If the car breaks a major component that costs more to repair that the car is worth, you junk it, plain and simple. By the way, this same fear is used to sell overpriced and largely useless "extended warranties" (see below).

The deprecation argument is idiotic.  All cars depreciate, and none depreciate more than a new car.   To dump a used car because it might depreciate $10,000 in the next five years and buy a new car that depreciates $10,000 in the first ten minutes of ownership makes no sense at all.

The Alternative: Look for a late model (2-3 year old) reliable model (Toyota, Honda, etc.) used car with low mileage, preferably from an individual owner who bought it new. Many people are "afraid" of buying a car from an individual, thinking they will get "ripped off".  These same risk-averse people think nothing of paying 20% more for the same used car from a dealer.   An individual has to take less money, and chances are has the same level of negotiating skills as you do.   It is a far better and more level playing field that any dealer.   Do the research, and shop for the same make and model car (as opposed to impulse-buying a model or trying to cross-shop different makes, models, and years).  Have your independent mechanic inspect the car before you buy it (and you do have a good relationship with a local independent mechanic, right?)  Maintain such a car and it will last 8-10 years or more, and cost less than half the cost of buying brand-new cars every 3 years to be "safe". And guess what? It can be just as reliable, if not more so, than a new car.


3. Over-Insurance

The Fear: You will be horribly ravaged in an accident, or die, and your family will be bankrupted.  Or your car will be stolen, and your "investment" lost.   Your home will burn down and you will lose all the precious possessions you have accumulated over a lifetime.

The Product: While having some insurance is a sound idea, the insurance industry uses fear to sell you more than you need. Towing insurance, rental car insurance, replacement cost insurance, contents coverage, disability, nursing home, excess life insurance, low-deductible collision, etc. are all pushed on consumers as the companies make more money on these policies for little additional risk. "For only pennies a day" you can insure the $250 windshield on your car.  Is it worth it?

The Reality: Like any other financial decision, there is always a cost/benefit analysis to perform. Risk-averse people like to tell stories about how the insurance company "covered everything" from a minor collision, but they fail to account for how much in increased premiums they paid for this coverage. Yes, the insurance company might give you a free rental car or some other benefit, but the reality is, it was never free, but more than paid for through your policy premiums.

The Alternative: Evaluate your insurance needs carefully.   Insurance companies like to say "You car is your second-biggest investment" when in fact it is just a rapidly depreciating piece of equipment.   Buy a secondhand car (see above) and use a high deductible collision policy ($1000 deductible) for the first few years, then drop collision entirely.   Avoid rental car and towing coverage (join AAA instead and get free maps).  For your home, go to as high a deductible as possible ($10,000 instead of $1000).  The name of the game here is NOT to burn down your house. The savings in premiums will exceed the deductible amount over time.

An Example: One egregious version of this scam is loan insurance.  Banks will offer, for "a few dollars a month" to insure your car loan, so if you die, your spouse will not have to pay off the loan.   Similar offers are made for mortgages as well.  For the cost involved for such life insurance(which is what it is) you can buy a term policy for 1/10th the cost. Again, the selling point is fear, and often the poorest segments in our society succumb to these sales tactics, as they live in fear of losing what few possessions they have.


4. Alarm Systems

The Fear: As shown on TeeVee, the burglar (usually a white male in a ski mask) smashes a window on a house occupied by a young mother and two small children. The young mother runs around in a panic and then activates the burglar alarm, which scares off the bad man in the ski mask immediately.

The Product: An alarm system, either sold to you or leased, for a "low monthly payment of only $99 a month including monitoring". That's $1200 bucks a year, or $12,000 over a decade. Enough to buy yourself a used car every ten years (about when you'd need one, too).  Of course, this doesn't include all the fines you'll get from the county police for all the false alarms you'll get.

The Reality: Home invasions are very rare in most urban and suburban areas.   Most burglars want to steal things, not rape your wife.  And for that, they want to enter during the day.  Most alarm systems can be easily defeated by cutting the phone lines at the network interface box mounted on the side of your house.  An alarm system does little to deter a professional thief, but can be a costly nuisance to the owner.

The Alternative: If you live in a neighborhood where people break into homes on a regular basis and steal things, ask yourself why you want to live there.   And if you do, ask yourself why you want to own expensive things in such a place.  Is it really worth $99 a month for an alarm system to protect your $599 flat-screen television? Spend that $99 a month on a mortgage payment for a home in a nicer neighborhood.  You will be far safer and make out better financially in the long run.

By the way, the same applies to car alarms. Young kids in bad neighborhoods put expensive stereo systems in cheap cars, and then buy obnoxious alarm systems to "protect" their "investment."   Better off not to flaunt wealth in a bad neighborhood, or better yet, to just move to a better neighborhood, where the neighbors don't consider a car stereo a major asset, or you can park your car indoors at night.

Note that this same FEAR is used by the handgun industry to sell weapons.  Criminals will attack your family!   Only a pistol will stop them!  Obama will turn America into a Socialist Paradise!  Better buy as many guns and rounds of ammunition NOW as you can - before it is too late!   I've met people who cave into these fears. When I ask them why they need 20,000 rounds of ammunition, they say "Well, it is always a good thing to be prepared!" They are letting FEAR force them into buying something that they will never use.  The Fear mongers, in the meantime, make out like bandits.


5. Extended Warranties

The Fear: Your car, or toaster, or television will break down just out of warranty, and you will be stuck with repair bills in the thousands of dollars.

The Product: An extended warranty, offered these days on everything from homes, to cars, to electronic appliances, promises to pay for all your repairs should something break, replacing your fears with "peace of mind."

The Reality: Many of these warranties are hugely overpriced and the same amount of money, put in the bank, will more than pay for any repairs, if needed, or be a bonus windfall if none are required. Taking care of products is a better substitute for relying on warranties.   Moreover, in many cases, the warranties are written in such a way that it is nearly impossible to collect.  You'll spend countless hours on the phone or writing letters in futile efforts to get reimbursed for repairs.  Most "big ticket" items on cars rarely fail, and small items are often not covered.  Electronics usually fail early on (infant mortality) while the standard warranty (or a store's return period) is still in effect or after a long life of service (after the extended warranty expires).  You'll rarely, if ever, collect on these.

The Alternative: Take that extended warranty money and put it in the bank.   Maintain your equipment and keep it in good order and it will last longer.  Stop driving your car like you just stole it - slowly accelerate, take the curves easy and anticipate your stops.   Properly cared for, most equipment rarely breaks, and if it does, the cost of repairs is usually far less than the cost of an extended warranty.

An Example: I bought a small television for my bedroom in 1987 from Circuit City. The salesperson heavily pressured me to buy a $25 "extended warranty" for this small $99 set.  After telling me how great it was (to get me to buy it) he then told me how horribly bad it was made (to get me to buy an extended warranty).  Naturally, I declined.  More than 20 years later, the set still works (I watch Netflix videos on it).  Circuit City, whose business largely depended on high-pressure sales tactics and such useless add-ons as extended warranties, has gone out of business.


6. Cell Phone Insurance

The Fear: Your cell phone will be lost, stolen, or damaged, and you will have to go out and pay hundreds of dollars for a new one.

The Product: Cell Phone Insurance, "for only a few dollars a month" will replace your cell phone with a new one if yours is lost, stolen, or damaged.

The Reality: If you take care of your things, the chances of them being lost, stolen, or damaged is slim. Cell phones are not expensive items - only a few hundred dollars each. If that seems like a lot of money to you, don't get one. Many cell phone insurance plans only offer to replace your phone with a "like model" - often used. The overall cost of "only a few dollars a month" can exceed the price of a new phone over time.

The Alternative: Don't own expensive trendy phones. If having the latest gadget to impress people you don't know is high on your list of priorities, then maybe you need to reconsider your priorities. Many cell phone carriers offer FREE phones if you sign for a new plan. So if you lose your phone after a year or two, trust me, the company will be happy to replace it for free or at a reduced cost. Inexpensive "throw away" phones can be bought for a few dollars, if you are really the sort of person who loses things on a regular basis.


7. Virus Protection

The Fear: You'll open an e-mail from Aunt Hattie and the screen will go blank, a skull and crossbones will appear, and all the valuable pictures of your grandchildren will be wiped from your hard drive.

The Product: Various virus protection programs are offered on a subscription basis, usually for $39.95 a year, often installed on new computers by default. They claim to scan all your files and e-mails and even websites you visit for malicious viruses or the like. Some ISPs offer "virus protection" packages for $9.99 per MONTH, which is nearly as much as the cost of Interent Service itself!

The Reality: Most web-based e-mail services (Hotmail, Gmail, Yahoo) offer virus scanners built-in, for free. If you educate yourself about computers, you'll know better than to download .exe or .com files from strangers or even from friends. The danger of a virus damaging your computer is slim, if you don't do stupid things online. And most computer failures (hard drive crash) are wrongly attributed by the owners to a "virus" as they don't understand computers.

The Alternative: Stop using POP server e-mail (Microsoft Outlook). If you don't know what that means, then you need to learn more about your computer and the Internet. Use a web-based e-mail service, with free, built-in virus protection. These services are all but immune from e-mail worms as well (which exploit weaknesses in Microsoft Outlook). BACKUP your files that you don't want to lose onto another computer (your laptop or an older obsolete computer) or a removable hard drive, USB dongle or the like. It takes only a few minutes to copy files if you really want to protect them, and it will protect them from hard drive crashes as well as viruses. Use FREE online botware (Spybot, etc.) to scan for resident bots and screen for malicious websites.

Note also that web-based e-mail (Hotmail, Gmail, Yahoo) is free and can be accessed from any computer anywhere in the world, even when you are travelling. And once you setup your e-mail address on a web-based site, you never have to change it again, ever, ever, for the rest of your life, even if you change internet service providers or move or whatever.


* * *

These are just a few examples of how marketers use fear to sell products that you don't need, or more product than you need, or a product at an over-inflated price.

Note that many, if not most of these scams are aimed at the poor or lower classes, who are often paranoid about losing what little they have, to the point where they over-insure their lives.

You can often spot these scams by one simple come-on line: "Peace of Mind". When you see a product or service promoted on the basis of "Peace of Mind" then chances are, you are being sold on FEAR.

The premise is, you give them money, and they give you "Peace of Mind". But in many cases, it is a false sense of security. The peace of mind is illusory, as if something bad happens (car repair, losing your cell phone) the consequences are not all that bad, and the hassle of dealing with these policies or contracts often exceeds the difficulties in just addressing the underlying problem head-on.

As I noted in the beginning of this piece, fear does have its uses. You should pay attention to it and take action. But letting fear cow you and heard you into poor economic decisions is not the answer. Being risk-averse (fear) is rarely the best course of action (or inaction).

By the way, watching television is one sure way to succumb to FEAR. Television thrives on fear in its advertisements, and even in the news ("Hurricane in the forecast? Stay tuned for News at 11!"). People who watch a LOT of television (most Americans) end up buying these fear-based products, as they are conditioned to believe that any minute, their lives will go spinning out of control.

Taking charge of your life and your finances requires that you take some risk and confront some fears. Yes, bad things will happen to you in life. You can buy all the insurance, warranties, and credit-protector you want, and these bad things will still happen, and likely you will be a bit poorer in the process.

We have a finite amount of time left on this planet. Go out and use it, and don't succumb to FEAR.

The Jet Ski Trap

Jet skis lose their allure rather rapidly.

I pick on Jet Skis as sort of the epitome of silly purchases that end up squandering a lot of hard earned money. While I use them as an easy example, other types of purchases could fall along similar lines. Speed boats, "crotch rocket" motorcycles, snowmobiles, and ATVs come to mind as similar wasteful purchases. What these scenarios have in common is:

1. A seasonal or hobby item that is not really necessary to daily living.

2. An item financed (usually at a high interest rate) with "E-Z Monthly Payments"

3. An item that depreciates dramatically.

4. An item that loses its allure rather quickly.

5. An item that needs constant maintenance that the owner cannot provide.

Let's see how these aspects combine and collide in an all-too-typical example of the Jet Ski purchase.

Jeff is a well-off middle class suburban dweller. He is married and he and his wife have decent incomes working in office environments. While Jeff is very skilled in his narrow field of interest, he literally cannot change a light bulb without cross-threading it half the time.

On vacation, he rents a Jet ski for an hour, and on the ocean in front of the resort he is staying at, it seems like a lot of fun - jumping the waves in the hot summer sun. All too soon the hour is over, leaving him wanting more. If he had just rented for that second hour, he probably would have gotten Jet Skiing out of his system, as he realized that there is not a lot more to do, other than what he already had been doing.

On return from vacation, Jeff proposes to Marsha, his wife, that they buy Jet Skis. He's seen the ads in the paper, and for what he paid for an HOUR to rent a Jet Ski, he could make a monthly payment on one!

They set off to visit the Jet Ski dealer. Jeff did not do any research first, comparing prices and features and also figuring out what these things were worth. He also did not research the price of used Jet Skis in the local classifieds or boattrader.com

The Jet Ski dealer was all too happy to see them on a busy weekend. Jeff was immediately drawn to a display of two jet skis on a trailer in the middle of the showroom. A large sign proclaims "Low monthly price! As low as $199 a month!**". This sounds too good to be true, and as Jeff will later learn, it is.

Of course, that was the price for only one Jet Ski. The monthly payment for two was twice that. And of course, the Jet Skis will need a trailer, which the dealer is happy to sell them. Lightweight Jet Ski trailers cost only a few hundred dollars to make. But to Jeff, who has not idea what things cost, spending $2000 on a trailer seems like a reasonable proposition, as does spending $10,000 on a Jet Ski. Jeff and Martha leave the showroom having spent as much as, if not more than, they would have on a new car.

Of course, the Jet Skis will need to be registered and insured, and Jeff is shocked to realize that insurance is rather high for these items. He also has to take his car in to have a hitch installed and trailer light wiring installed. But within a week, all the loan paperwork is done and Jeff is pleased to go pick up his Jet Skis and head off for a weekend adventure! No mere hour-long rental, but a weekend full of Jet Skiing fun!

Jeff and Martha head over to the local lake and discover there is a long line to launch their Jet Skis on a Saturday morning. They finally get the Jet Skis in the water and after some initial messing around, take off from the dock. Other boaters angrily wave at them as they fly out of the launching area, oblivious to the no wake zone signs and roped swimming area.

Jeff and Martha discover the first negative about Jet Skis - other boaters hate them. Local landowners are annoyed by their loud buzzing sounds, and traditional boaters annoyed by their erratic unskilled and often unsafe drivers.

With a simple twist of the throttle, Jeff is now doing close to 70 mph on the water - a fairly staggering speed, considering most boats travel only 30 mph or so. He suddenly realizes that he is on a collision course with a bass boat. Panicked, he lets go of the throttle and tries to turn. With a horrible sinking feeling and pit in his stomach, Jeff realizes that the Jet Ski is still headed straight for the bass boat. Jeff discovers another problem with Jet Skis - when you release the throttle, they lose all directional control.

Fortunately for Jeff, the bass boat driver, having seen this scenario before, takes evasive action and avoids a deadly collision. Jeff is lucky. Every year, thousands of other Jet Skiers are not so lucky, and are either killed or maimed in such collisions. It is small wonder that insurance on these seasonal items can be so high.

Jeff learns his lesson and slows down and learns to take evasive action before coming close to boats or objects in the water - or land. He and Martha head off to an area where there are no boats and try out the new Jet Skis. They turn left and make circles. They turn right and make circles. They turn left. They turn right. Jeff comes to the realization that this wasn't as much fun as he thought. They have been on the water for only a half-hour, have pissed off all the other boaters in the area, and basically are having no fun.

There are no waves to jump, Jeff thinks, and after watching some other Jet Skiers, decide to find some boat wakes to jump. they follow a cabin cruiser throwing up a good wake and try to jump it. However, the jet skis do little more than bump over the two-foot wake and the boat's captain gives them an angry glance as they ride too close to his boat.

They ride some more. There has to be some fun in this, Jeff thinks, remembering the time at the resort. Or has he really "been there, done that" already? Having spend over twenty thousand dollars on these Jet Skis, he gets a sinking feeling, and thinks about the 59 months of payments ahead of them.

Martha sees an isolated section of water across the lake and suggests they head over there. They gun their engines and floor it across the lake, throwing up rooster tails. When they arrive, Jeff feels that maybe they have found the "fun" part, doing S-turns among the reeds in the shallow water and watching flocks of geese take flight ahead of their Jet Skis. But suddenly, Jeff's Jet ski sounds an alarm and slows down. The grasses have wound around the impeller and stalled the engine.

Martha pulls along side and Jeff looks under the seat, mystified as to how to correct the problem. Soon another boat arrives and Jeff is optimistic that help is on the way. Unfortunately, the boat is the local Environmental Conservation Sheriff, and Martha and Jeff are ticketed for riding their jet skis through a bird sanctuary and also violating wake zone rules. "I've had a number of complaints about you two" the Sheriff says, handing them the tickets. Jeff explains that they just bought the Jet Skis and the Sheriff shakes his head. He's seen this scenario many times before.

Using a short rope, Martha tows Jeff's Jet ski back across the lake. While it took them only minutes to get across under power, towing takes nearly an hour, as every time Martha tries to accelerate, Jeff's ski starts to swamp.

They get the Jet Skis on the trailer and leave, sitting in silence in the car on the way home. "Maybe next time will be better," Jeff says.

And it is, of course. They get the impeller unclogged at the dealer and Jeff learns a few basic maintenance procedures, like how to add oil to the oil injection system. The dealer is in no hurry to educate Jeff, because each costly mistake Jeff makes, out of ignorance, is another profitable transaction for the dealer.

They try other lakes and rivers and, having learned not to annoy other boaters and how to read the various signs and buoys, largely stay out of trouble. They take the Jet Skis to the beach and run them in the ocean water, which brings back a lot of the fun from their vacation. But still, it is not the continuous orgasm than Jeff expected, just a series of chores and tasks to get ready to go and to return - packing and unpacking equipment, food, beverages, and the like.

Unfortunately, Jeff hasn't learned half of the chores he needs to do. On the way back from one beach adventure, he is appalled when a wheel rolls by his car window - a wheel from his Jet Ski Trailer. It bounces across the median and narrowly misses an oncoming car. Jeff is lucky. Many more are not. Such wheels can pass through a windshield and kill an oncoming driver - it happens every year. Regular maintenance on a trailer is essential, and Jeff hasn't even washed his trailer since buying it.

Pulling off the road in a shower of sparks, he realizes that the wheel has fallen off his trailer. Having no spare, he leaves the now-crippled trailer by the side of the road and sets off to find a replacement wheel.

However, it is Sunday, and most of the stores are closed. Not knowing the wheel and tire size anyway, he has no idea what tire to get. He finally calls a tow truck to come out and pick up the trailer. Even if he had a spare, it wouldn't have made a difference. Since Jeff never lubricated the hubs on this trailer, the salt water attacked the bearings and cause the axle stub to shear off. Not only did Jeff need a new wheel and Tire, he needed a new axle as well. This scenario plays out with predictable regularity on the roadways of the USA. On any given Sunday, you'll find at least one similarly crippled Jet Ski trailer on the side of any Interstate Highway.

Since the trailer is not covered by his roadside assistance, he has a hefty $400 towing bill to pay, as well as the repairs to the trailer. Jeff is discouraged. Maybe they should sell the Jet Skis. After owning them a year, he goes online to see what he can get for them.

Jeff is shocked. He checks the local classifieds, the local boattrader.com, and the NADA used boat values. The retail value for his Jet Skis is thousands less than he owes on the loan. He calls the dealer he bought them from. The dealer is all too willing to take them back - as a trade-in on a newer, more expensive model, provided the deficit in the payoff is folded back into a higher interest "negative equity" loan on the newer models.

If Jeff wants to sell his Jet Skis, he'll have to PAY $3000 to get rid of them. Since he lives as a "salary slave" from paycheck to paycheck, he doesn't have $3000 to pay off the deficit on the loans when he sells the Jet Skis - if he can sell them at all.

So the Jet Skis sit on the trailer in his side yard, gathering mildew and algae, while the trailer tires go flat. Martha has lost interest in Jet Skiing, particularly now that a baby is on the way. Jeff, too, has found Jet Skiing to be less than he thought it would be.

Unfortunately, the Jet Skis continue to depreciate faster than the balance on the loan declines. Jeff and Martha make five more years of payments on this expensive mistake. Sitting in the side yard, unused, the engines languish, the vinyl upholstery fades and cracks, and all the rubber pieces start to craze and rot.

High revving two stoke engines rarely last long anyway, which is one reason Jet Skis depreciate so quickly. Few jet skis are still around that are more than five years old. You may see some brave soul with some engine fix-it experience nurse one back to life. But for the most part, they crash and burn after a relatively short life.

Jeff and Martha donate the Jet Skis to a local charity for a tax write-off once the loan is paid off. The charity sells the Jet Skis and trailer at auction. The Jet Skis are sold for parts by their new owner, who is interested only in the trailer - which he uses to haul his lawnmower, after mounting a piece of plywood to it.

What was the overall cost of this financial fiasco to Jeff and Martha? In addition to the $22,500 paid for the Jet Skis and trailer, there is the staggering $10,000 in interest payments. Throw in repairs, registration, property taxes, and the like, and you have a bill of $40,000 or more for few weekends of fun. Jeff and Martha can ill afford such waste, particularly that they now have children.

Could Jeff and Martha done anything differently to prevent such a scenario? Yes.

To begin with, they could have just said "no" to buying a Jet Ski. While renting one may seem expensive, in terms of cost per hour, it may be cheaper overall. Moreover, you are not committed to years of payments for something that might only catch your fancy for a few days or weeks.

They might also have looked at buying a real boat. For less than the cost of a jet ski, Jeff and Martha could have owned a small boat. While a Jet Ski provides you with minutes of endless fun, turning left and turning right, you can do much more with a boat. You can fish from a boat, waterskii, wakeboard, tube, camp, cruise, party, or whatever. You can invite your friends on a boat - or family members. Moreover, a regular boat depreciates more slowly than a jet ski.

They also should have looked into paying cash for such a purchase, buying the Jet Skis secondhand. Since there are so many Jet Skis out there like Jeff and Martha's, where the buyer loses interest fairly quickly, you can buy them relatively new and in good shape, for a lot less than new ones. But you have to find a seller who is not "upside down" on his loan, and since these are hard to finance if you are not going through a dealer, you generally have to pay cash.

Frankly, for such a luxury purchase as a Jet Ski, boat, RV, or whatever, it probably is a good idea to pay cash. That way, you are less at risk of being "upside down" on a loan, and can dispose of the item at any time, regardless of how badly it has depreciated.

It is better to sell a used Jet Ski for half of what you paid for it, than to make 6 years of payments and then sell it for scrap. Yet this latter scenario is played out in back yards all across America - as consumers pay off loans on RVs, Boats, Jet Skis, Motorcycles, and the like. Now that the recession has hit - and hit hard - you cannot give away luxury items like these. But it is a good time to pick one up - secondhand.

Lastly, Jeff and Martha should have taken the time to learn how to maintain such equipment. You CAN own "toys" like a Jet Ski or a motorcycle or an RV or a Boat, on a budget, provided you don't have to run off to a dealer every time it breaks. If you cannot take care of an item to prevent it from breaking, and if you cannot do basic maintenance on an item when it needs maintenance, then maybe you should re-think owning luxury items involving machinery.

Jeff and Martha learned an expensive lesson relatively early on in life. But one wonders, when you consider the educational background both Jeff and Martha have, why they would make such a costly mistake at all?

* * * *

P.S. - while the plural form of Ski was, I thought, Skiis, it appears the plural of Jet Ski is Jet Skis, which makes no sense to me and sounds like it would be pronounced "Jet Skiz". "Personal Watercraft" is the generic term, but rather awkward.

Take It Back!

TAKE IT BACK!

I was a t a friend's garage sale the other day, and saw that they were selling a set of curtain rods.

I looked at them closely. They were still in the original packaging, boxed up, wrapped in shrink wrap, with the store price tag on them.

"You like those?" my friend said, "We bought them, but found out they didn't fit, so we are selling them in the garage sale".

"Why don't you take them back and get a refund?" I said. My friend looked flabbergasted.

Getting in the habit of taking things back can save you a considerable amount of money. I did not fully grasp the concept myself until I recently moved.

Most modern "big box" stores have generous return policies, although in recent years, they have been tightened somewhat to prevent fraud and abuse.

However, in order to encourage you to buy items for sale, they offer these return policies as an incentive. If you buy something and later don't need it, or it doesn't fit, you can always take it back.

Even without a receipt, most stores will give a store credit for a returned item. So my friend's curtain rod would have yielded $15 in store credit, as opposed to $1 at a garage sale.

Don't get me wrong, garage sales are a fine and wonderful thing, and a great way to get rid of items that are cluttering up your home - and convert them to cash. But if you can get full price for an item by taking it back, then do so.

Home improvement items are a big area where the "take it back" concept can work. When moving recently, I realized I had a lot of PVC plumbing parts that I had bought for various plumbing projects over the years. When you install a sink or whatever, often you end up buying more parts than necessary, as "going back to the store" for one 59-cent elbow is a frustrating experience.

The temptation is to "keep" the extra parts for the "next project" as they are somewhat inexpensive. However, a 59-cent elbow, times 10, is over $5 of stuff cluttering up your workbench.

We put a large cardboard box in the garage labeled the "Take Back Box" and then when we found something we had bought, in the original packaging (or as the case with plumbing parts, with the original bar code on it) we put it in the box. When going to the home improvement store to shop, our first step was to go to the return desk to get a store credit for the take-back items.

In some instances, we didn't remember which store we bought things from. In those cases, I would simply take it to the return desk at one store. If it scanned, great. If not, I would simply take it to the other store.

Surprisingly, we ended up with hundreds of dollars in store credits at various stores this way. We had bought a lot of items for projects and either the project didn't materialize, or the parts were "left over".

I recently bought some lower unit oil for my boat at Wal-Mart. When I got to the boat, I realized that I had already bought the oil last year. Some might say "well, now I have extra", but at nearly $10 a quart, it is a lot of expensive oil to have hanging around, particularly since I was planning on selling the boat. I took it back and got a $42 store credit.

Get in the habit of taking things back and your garage will be a lot less cluttered and you'll have more money in your pocket. Even after a year or more, most stores will take back products, provided they are in the original packaging, in good shape, and the product is still sold at that store.

As I have noted in my other entries, the big-box stores do encourage a very destructive form of shopping - the "unfinished project" shopping. And I know a number of people who go to such stores, buy lots of expensive items with grandiose plans for backyard or home improvement projects, and by the time they get them home, are too tired to even start the project.

This sort of thing can happen to anyone, but some folks are more addicted than others. These types of stores are designed to distract you, and when you go to buy a light bulb, it is temping, walking through the aisles, to say "Gee, maybe we should put in a fancy new sink" or something. Before you know it, your car or truck is full of lumber and cement and parts, and your credit card is sagging hundreds of dollars lower. You get it all home, and it languishes in the garage.

Plan projects you need to do, and do them first. Finish one project before starting another. Resist the temptation to start a spontaneous project based on the merchandising at a big-box store. And if you buy something for a project that is leftover or you never finish the project, TAKE IT BACK!

As I wandered around my friend's garage sale, I noticed a number of other items like the curtain rods - products that were still had the original packaging and could have been taken back for a refund (with receipt) or a store credit (without). Unfortunately, many of the items had been improperly stored (left outside), or broken out of their packaging, and thus could no longer be returned for a refund. Much of these items were sold for pennies on the dollar, which is a sad waste of hard-earned money.

Money takes labor to earn, and unless you want to end up like Sisuphus, perpetually working to no end or purpose. Wasting money is wasting your labor, so it only makes sense to spend wisely.

And if you buy something you don't need.....

.....TAKE.......IT.....BACK!

The DEATH of Retail

Circuit City is liquidating, finally. Linens 'n Things is no more. Retailers are complaining that the market is "down" and look forward to an uptick in sales in the future.

I hate to break it to them, but this shift in retail sales will likely be a permanent thing. Our population is aging, and spending less. The Internet makes price shopping a snap (or a click, anyway). Big-box discount retailers like Wal-Mart and the shopping clubs offer big-ticket items at small-ticket prices. Why go to a Consumer Electronics Store when you can buy the same stuff for cheaper at Wal-Mart?

Electronics, in particular, is one area where prices have changed permanently. We should have seen this when the CD came out - and put audiophile quality sound in the hands of everyman. Suddenly, overnight, analog vinyl recordings become passe and quaint. (Note to so-called audiophiles: Please don't try to convince me that scratches, pops, and static sound better than digital sound, because it just ain't so!).

The downfall of Circuit City is one area where people just don't get it. Folks blame the management for dropping major home appliances, or getting rid of sales commissions or expensive salesmen. These were not the CAUSE of the demise of Circuit City, but merely a symptom of the problems in the overall consumer electronics market. The salesman's commission model, with the "hard sell" of financing and extended warranties just didn't work in an era when you could buy the same (or similar) goods for HALF PRICE at a discounter across the street.

One fellow commented about the former President of Circuit City:

"The people he fired happened to be the ones who knew what they were talking about when it came to electronics and those sales people went to work for the competition, taking their customers with them."

I think that comment misses the mark, completely. What killed off Circuit City was the changing nature of consumer electronics. The electronics sector is changing. He had to fire the highest paid people just to stay alive. Why should I go to Circuit City or any other "big box" store and talk to a "salesman" about an electronics purchase, when I can go to Wal-Mart, Sam's Club, Price Club, or the like and just put these things in my cart and check out? Or buy them on the Internet for cheap?


A 42" flat-screen teevee is now $600 to $800. This is not a 'big ticket' purchase that requires financing, extended warranty, or a "salesman" to "help you choose the right one!"

Circuit City made money by marking up electronics and selling add-ons like financing and extended warranties. When prices fall, these add-ons are no longer necessary.

Car Stereo is another area where the game has changed. Most cars come standard with 8 or 12 speaker stereos, so who needs an aftermarket one? And am I going to let the teenagers at Circuit City cut into the wiring harness of my BMW to install one? I think not. That whole market has shrunk.

Consumer electronics are now CHEAP and DISPOSABLE. Digital processing means that consumer-grade electronics are now on a near-par with what used to be considered "audiophile" electronics.


As for appliances, the big-box lumberterias have this nailed down. Circuit City could not go head-to-head with Lowes or Home Depot, which don't have to pay sales commissions.
The Circuit City model was completely wrong for this market. Electronics are a commodity now - like a bushel of beans. You sell them for as cheaply as possible and in mass quantities. The idea of going to a dimly lit store and spending hours selecting components with a salesperson is outmoded.


Maybe in 1975, we'd go into the "high end" stereo room (with sliding glass doors, natch) in hush awe at the "audiophile" speakers and receivers. But no more.

In addition, an aging population doesn't really care about those sort of things anymore. Heck, half of them are deaf from Rolling Stones concerts.

Yes, the sales people were fired. They probably took jobs at lower pay with other stores. But did customers "follow" them? Do I remember the name of the sales person I last bought a piece of electronics from? I think it was the Internet....

The so-called "downturn" in Retailing is not a momentary pause, but a permanent change in how we do business. When I want to purchase anything these days, I first check the Internet for pricing, and then locally for availability. Much of what I need can be ordered online for less than in a local store. So why would any rational person buy at a store?

The idea that the store provides "service" is ludicrous. Electronics, when they fail, as disposed of. Product returns on the Internet are as easy as at a store. So there is no advantage to buying at a store - and you pay more.

Traditional Brick & Mortar Retail is DEAD, and companies will have to remake themselves to compete.

The last thing I bought at Circuit City was an iPod, and that was after ordering it online and picking it up at the store. Before that, the last thing I bought at Circuit City was a $99 TeeVee in 1987. The experience was so unpleasant, I never went back (bait & switch, pressure to sell extended warranties, etc. BTW, the TeeVee still works, no extended warranty needed. But it is analog, so in the trash it goes. Electronics are DISPOSABLE, folks!).

Circuit City is just the start. Other consumer electronics retailers will feel the heat next. Best Buy is another unpleasant, overpriced buying experience that no one really needs. Maybe the selection is greater, but do I really need to choose from 50 different TeeVees? Just offer six or so, and lower the prices.

My next purchase will probably be a flat-panel TV. But I'll probably buy it online or at a discount store (Wal-Mart), rather than a dedicated consumer electronics store.
Why spend tons of money on a "high-end" screen, when they are basically a disposable commodity? It would be like paying extra for a "gourmet" Big Mac.

While Bed, Bath & Beyond may be relaxing now that their largest competitor, Linens 'N Things is bankrupt, I would caution them not to get too cocky. They already know that for many major ticket items, shoppers can buy online or at a big-box store. The last major purchase I made at Bed, Bath was a KitchenAid mixer. They didn't have it in stock, so the clerk went online and ordered it for me and had it shipped to my home.

Gee, ordering appliances on the Internet. What do I need the store for?

Not surprisingly, Bed. Bath, & Beyond has crowded their aisles with junky trinkets and impulse purchase items. Finding actual kitchen ware or bedding supplies is getting harder to do with the store stocking more gadgets and less real products. They are losing sales on hard items with small margins, so they are shifting to a Spencer Gifts model. At this rate, there won't be a kitchen knife or sheet left in the place in five years. Bed, Bath, & Beyond will be heading for the Great Beyond in no time.

My local town has miles and miles of retail space built in the last 10 years. Most of these storefronts are empty. What is it we need to buy so desperately? Companies are realizing that you can sell more effectively and efficiently on-line than through a "store". Need a cell phone? Go online and they'll mail you one. Why do you need to visit a "store" to do this?

Worse yet, when many folks visit local stores, they do so only to shop or look at products that they later buy online. Since the local stores are all anonymous chains run by faceless corporations, no one feels any guilt about using them merely to demonstrate products later purchased elsewhere.

Personal Services like barbers and the like will always require some storefront (but perhaps not - a mobile barber van could come to your home, no?). But the amount of retail space we have in this country far exceeds demand.

The retail market has changed and I think changed for good. Using traditional retail marketing strategies simply won't work any more. Relying on 100% impulse buying is not the answer either, I'm afraid. How the new retail works in the Internet era will be interesting to see.

Look for more store closings near you!